So, it’s November 1st, 2010, the eve of the mid-term elections, two years into the historic presidency of Barack Obama, and I find myself in the the same way I found myself on November 3rd, 2008: totally pants-less.  Why am I not wearing pants?  Because I love politics.  I follow them closer than I follow any sport, and the night before mid-terms is like tailgating before the World Series. What is the causal relationship between my not wearing pants and anticipating election returns?  If I could answer this, I’d probably be able to explain my inexplicable physical attraction to Peggy Noonan, which I cannot.  Alas, passions and their frenzied symptoms remain a mystery.

At any rate, this years mid-terms have made the antics and fashion of “The Jersey Shore” seem as reasoned as this week’s Economist, which makes them all the more titillating to a misanthropic student of human nature like me.  Given the premise that reason has been thrown out the car window this election season like a semen-filled rubber after a forbidden tryst outside the Port Authority, making predictions seems a tad foolhardy.  However, my ego and bloated political gut refuse to be contained.  That being said, here we go:

GENERAL PREDICTIONS:

  • Republicans gain 60 seats or more in The House of Representatives, gaining control 238 – 197
  • Republicans gain 4 seats in the Senate, leaving Democrats with a 10 seat majority, 55 – 45
  • Republicans gain 3 Governorships, gaining control 27 – 23

 

REPUBLICAN SENATE PICK-UPS:

  • Indiana: Dan Coats (R) over Brad Ellsworth (D)
  • North Dakota: John Hoeven (R) over Tracy Potter (D)
  • Arkansas: John Boozman (R) over Blanche Lincoln (D)
  • Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R) over Russ Feingold (D)

DEMOCRAT SENATE PICK-UPS:

  • Alaska: Scott McAdams (D) over Joe Miller (R) and Lisa Murkowski (write-in)

REPUBLICAN SENATE HOLDS:

  • Florida: Marco Rubio (R) over Charlie Crist (D) and Kendrick Meek (I)
  • Kentucky: Rand Paul (R) over Jack Conway (D)

DEMOCRAT SENATE HOLDS:

  • West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) over John Raese (R)
  • California: Barbara Boxer (D) over Carly Fiorina (R)
  • Colorado: Michael Bennet (D) over Ken Buck (R)
  • Nevada: Harry Reid (D) over Sharron Angle (R)
  • Washington: Patty Murray (D) over Dino Rossi (R)
  • Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D) over Linda McMahon (R)
  • Delaware: Chris Coons (D) over Christine O’Donell (R)
  • Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak (D) over Pat Toomey (R)
  • Illionois: Alexi Giannoulias (D) over Mark Kirk (R)

The big news of the evening (besides Republicans overwhelmingly taking the House) will be Democrats winning Governor’s races in really big states, which have redistricting consequences for the elections in 2012.  Expect to hear Robert Gibbs cite these in the Press Room as a reason that the election results are not a referendum on Obama’s agenda:

  • California: Jerry Brown (D) over Meg Whitman (R)
  • New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) over Carl Paladino (R)
  • Ohio: Ted Strickland (D) over John Kasich (R)
  • Florida: Alex Sink (D) over Rick Scott (R)

Also, in the coming weeks or months after the elections, there will be considerable shake-ups within the Obama Administration.  Here are my long-shots:

  • Outgoing Governor of Pennsylvania Ed Rendell replaces Interim Chief-of-Staff, Pete Rouse (Tom Daschle is my #2 here)
  • Colin Powell replaces Secretary of Defense, Bob Gates
  • Warren Buffett replaces Tim Geitner as Secretary of Treasury (long-shot of all long-shots, though more likely than the Mike Bloomberg chatter meandering about)
  • Robert Gibbs leaves as Press Secretary to head the DNC, his deputy, Bill Burton replaces him

There it is: one big fucking matzoh-ball hanging out, an especially embarrassing thing for a gentile who despises matzoh in all of its embodiments.  Polls start closing at 6 pm EST tomorrow in Indiana and Kentucky.  Expect a multitude of races to not be decided for days and maybe weeks as a result of recounts.  I look forward to the resolution of those stubborn races so I can finally put my pants back on.  But until then: please call me, Peggy.  Reading your columns in the Wall Street Journal are not the same as hearing your sweet, buttermilk voice.  Seriously, call me…  I’ve talked it over with my girlfriend, and she’s given me a pass, but just for you.  She’s totally cool with it.  I need to see you.  Seriously…  I have an aching that only you can soothe.  I will treat you right, not like that Chamber of Commerce dick that you divorced twenty years ago.  I need you, and will treat you so right.  Seriously…  Call me.  Please…